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2018 Atlantic hurricane season (Jarrell)
The 2018 Atlantic hurricane season is an ongoing event in the annual formation of tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially began on June 1, 2018, and will officially end on November 30, 2018. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and are adopted by convention. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year as shown by the formation of Subtropical Storm Adreanna on May 8, the first time a pre-season storm developed since 2016. The season began quickly, with tropical storms and major hurricanes forming unusually early in activity not seen since 2005 for number of storms and strength of the storms. Early predictions called for a moderately active season, but several environmental factors--namely the quick formation of a strong La Nina environment--has led to near-record levels of activity in the basin. This season has so far seen 21 tropical storms, which makes it the second-most active season on record, surpassing the 20 documented in the 1933 season. This season also has seen 13 hurricanes form so far, outdoing 1969 for the second-most hurricanes to form in a single season. Of these, eight have been major hurricanes - breaking the record set in 1961 and later 2005 for the most category 3 or higher hurricanes to form in a single season. The season has caused a large amount of damage, death and destruction. Hurricane Clarice made landfall on the Yucatán as a category 5 hurricane, causing quite a bit of damage, and continued to later hit southeast Texas. Hurricane Dale made landfall in Mexico and spawned a devastating series of storms that has so far killed at least 967 people. Hurricane Faith did considerable harm to both Cuba and the Florida Panhandle at Category 4 intensity. Hurricane Hailey was a deadly and powerful storm which reached high-end Category 4 intensity in the Gulf of Mexico, becoming one of the most intense storms on record. It tracked through the Caribbean, directly impacting many of the nations in the area, most notably the Dominican Republic at category 3 intensity, before devastating southeastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. It eventually made landfall at its Category 4 peak, causing catastrophic damage to the New Orleans area and killed at least 200 people. It became one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history, causing at least $35 billion in damage. Hurricanes Kristen and Lucas both struck Hispaniola within days of each other, causing significant damage to the nation which had been severely affected by many of the earlier storms of the season. The latter went on to strike the Bahamas and parallel the U.S. East coast as a major hurricane before dissipating. Hurricane Michaela ravaged the Lesser Antilles (with rather negligible effects felt in the Greater Antilles), the Bahamas, and later Florida at category 4 intensity; causing 56 deaths and at least 15 billion in damages. Hurricane Olivia stalled off the coast of North Carolina for several days, battering the coast with hurricane-force winds and a significant storm surge before making landfall in the state as a category 2 storm. Hurricane Ricky became another major hurricane to make a close pass the Lesser Antilles, but never made landfall in its life. Hurricane Sarah became the second category 5 hurricane of the season as it journeyed through the Gulf of Mexico, and eventually made landfall as a Category 3 storm in Louisiana. Late in the season, Hurricane Violet rapidly became a powerful storm, having taken only 24 hours to strengthen from tropical storm strength to a Category 5 hurricane, among the most rapid intensification recorded in the history of the Atlantic basin. Violet made landfall at Playa del Carmen, Mexico (as a Category 2 storm) three days later. On October 21, Violet made a close pass to the Florida Keys at its secondary peak intensity, with 135 mph winds. It would later go on to strike the Bahamas before becoming an extratropical storm in the open Atlantic. __TOC__ 'Seasonal forecasts' Ahead of and during the season, several national meteorological services and scientific agencies forecast how many named storms, hurricanes and major (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale) hurricanes will form during a season and/or how many tropical cyclones will affect a particular country. These agencies include the Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Consortium of the University College London, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. Some of these forecasts also take into consideration what happened in previous seasons and an ongoing La Niña event that had recently formed in November 2017. On average, an Atlantic hurricane season between 1981 and 2010 contained twelve tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of between 66 and 103 units. The first forecast for the year was released by TSR on December 7, 2017, predicting a slightly above-average season in 2018, with a total of 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. On April 5, 2018, CSU released its forecast, predicting a slightly above-average season with 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. On the same day TSR released its second forecast, predicting a slightly-below average hurricane season, with 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, the reduction in both the number and size of storms compared to its first forecast being due to recent anomalous cooling in the far northern and tropical Atlantic. Several days later, on April 16, North Carolina State University released its predictions, forecasting an above-average season, with 14–18 named storms, 7–11 hurricanes, and 3–5 major hurricanes. On April 19, The Weather Company released its first forecasts, predicting 2018 to be a near-average season, with a total of 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. On May 24, NOAA released their first forecasts, calling for a near to above average season in 2018. 'Mid-season outlooks' On August 2, 2018, after an extraordinarily active early season, NOAA released an updated outlook on the remainder of the season. The outlook called for from 18 to a record-tying 21 tropical storms, 9 to 11 hurricanes, and 5 to 7 becoming major hurricanes. The ACE value of the overall season is expected to be roughly twice those of a normal season. While June and July were unusually active, August and September are expected to contain the peak of seasonal activity as in most seasons. NOAA notes a higher than normal confidence in the forecast of above-normal activity. 'Season summary' The season began very quickly, with seven tropical storms and two major hurricanes forming before August, setting numerous records for number and strength of storms. Subtropical Storm Adreanna formed nearly a month prior to the official start of the season, becoming the first to do so since 2016. Hurricane Clarice set the record for the earliest observed category 5 hurricane in a season and caused major damage in Jamaica before striking the Yucatan Peninsula at full-force and eventually making landfall in Southeastern Texas. Around the same time, a significant flooding event was triggered in much of southern Mexico and Central America by the relatively weak Hurricane Dale, which formed in the midst of a larger convective area of showers and thunderstorms. Hundreds of deaths were reported across the region, though exact numbers are not available. The damage wrought by Clarice in Jamaica was compounded just two weeks after its passage by Hurricane Faith, which went on to strike Cuba and later the Florida Panhandle as a category 4 hurricane. In August, Hurricane Hailey directly affected many of the Caribbean nations before entering the Gulf of Mexico. The storm then rapidly intensified to a high-end category 4 hurricane with a minimum pressure of 922 mbar and maximum sustained winds of 155 mph (245 km/h), making it one of the most intense category 4 hurricanes ever observed in the Atlantic basin. It maintained its extreme intensity by the time of landfall early on August 15. Major flooding resulted from the storm surge, which lashed the coast from Alabama to Louisiana. The levee system in New Orleans which had seen major improvements in the years after Hurricane Katrina, did not fail during Hailey's passage, minimizing the effects of the surge. In spite of this, damages from other aspects of the storm were extreme, resulting in a estimated cost of at least $35 billion dollars. Later that month, Hispaniola saw impacts from two hurricanes within days of each other--Kristen and Lucas. The former made landfall around the border of Haiti and the Dominican Republic as a minimal hurricane, quickly weakening to a tropical storm during its passage, resulting in fairly light damage across the island nation. It later strengthened to a major hurricane in the open Atlantic to no consequence. The latter storm formed from the disturbed waters left behind by Kristen, which instead of resulting in a hostile environment for strengthening, actually improved conditions. As a result, Lucas rapidly intensified to reach category 3 strength by August 30. Continuing northward, the storm weakened before it struck Haiti early on August 31. The storm had become disorganized and disrupted by the time it made another landfall later that day in Cuba. The mountainous terrain of both Cuba and Haiti weakened Lucas to tropical storm status, as it began to accelerate northwestwards through the Bahamas, regaining its category 2 strength prior to doing so. Exiting the vicinity of the Bahamas, the hurricane once more reached category 3 strength as it paralleled just offshore of the Eastern US Coast, making a close pass to the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a weakening category 2 hurricane. In early September, Hurricane Michaela quickly became the sixth major hurricane of the season, and after some fluctuations in intensity, the storm made an extremely close pass to Anguilla and the Virgin Islands before moving through the Bahamas and later Florida as a category 4 hurricane. This made 2018 the first year since 2005 that two major hurricanes struck the same state in a single hurricane season. In late-September, Hurricane Sarah struck the Bahamas as a tropical storm, then quickly strengthened to the second Category 5 hurricane of the season as it moved out over the Gulf of Mexico. On October 3, Sarah became the tenth-most intense hurricane observed in the Atlantic basin when it bottomed out to a minimum barometric pressure of 908 mb. During the afternoon of October 5, Sarah made landfall southwest of Morgan City as a category 3 hurricane. Upon doing so, Sarah became the fifth landfalling major hurricane of the season, furthering the record set by Michaela for the most amount of major hurricanes to strike the US in a given season. The 2018 season also became one of only six seasons to see the formation of more than one category 5 hurricane; the first occurrence since 2007. With the advent of Hurricane Violet, the 2018 season set the record for the second-most category 5 hurricanes in a single season, behind only 2005. In addition to these hurricanes, three additional tropical storms (Adreanna, Blake and Emma) made landfall in the United States while three other hurricanes (Gavin, Paige and Ricky) impacted the Leeward Islands. Furthermore, Hurricane Olivia stalled off North Carolina and battered the coast with fluctuations between tropical storm and hurricane-force winds for nearly a week before making landfall as a category 2 hurricane. Hurricane William became only the second tropical cyclone on record (the first being 2005's Tropical Storm Delta) to ever to impact the Canary Islands in its life, albeit as a post-tropical cyclone with no recorded damage or casualties. One tropical (in the case of May, subtropical) storm formed in both May and June, five formed in July, five formed in August, six in September, three in October, and none so far in November. The level of activity of the season has had far ranging economic consequences. For example, because of the low overhead of additional global capacity for petroleum production, and the vulnerability of both oil extracting and refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico, storms have led to speculative spikes in the price of crude oil. The damage to refinery capacity in the United States caused gasoline prices to soar, when adjusted for inflation, exceeded only by the two inflationary spikes of 1918-1920, 1979-1982, as well as the hurricanes in 2005. Governments in Europe and the United States tapped strategic reserves of gasoline and petroleum and shortages were reported in the days after Hailey in areas heavily dependent on the Gulf of Mexico for refined gasoline. Even weeks after the storm, prices remained elevated, as the shut in production remained over 1 million barrels per day. Sarah damaged wells in the western Gulf of Mexico, which were primarily exploratory, leading to concerns that future production would be damped for some time to come. 'Systems' ImageSize = width:700 height:250 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/05/2018 till:31/12/2018 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/05/2018 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_≤39_mph_(≤62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39–73_mph_(63–117_km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74–95_mph_(118–153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96–110_mph_(154–177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111–129_mph_(178–208_km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_130–156_mph_(209–251_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_=_≥157_mph_(≥252_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:10 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:08/05/2018 till:10/05/2018 color:TS text:Adreanna (SS) from:14/06/2018 till:17/06/2018 color:TS text:Blake (TS) from:05/07/2018 till:18/07/2018 color:C5 text:Clarice (C5) from:07/07/2018 till:10/07/2018 color:C1 text:Dale (C1) from:13/07/2018 till:17/07/2018 color:TS text:Emma (TS) from:16/07/2018 till:24/07/2018 color:C4 text:Faith (C4) from:25/07/2018 till:31/07/2018 color:C2 text:Gavin (C2) from:06/08/2018 till:16/08/2018 color:C4 text:Hailey (C4) from:09/08/2018 till:10/08/2018 color:TD text:Nine (TD) from:15/08/2018 till:17/08/2018 color:TS text:Isaiah (TS) from:22/08/2018 till:24/08/2018 color:TS text:Jade (TS) barset:break from:25/08/2018 till:01/09/2018 color:C3 text:Kristen (C3) from:28/08/2018 till:05/09/2018 color:C3 text:Lucas (C3) from:02/09/2018 till:16/09/2018 color:C4 text:Michaela (C4) from:06/09/2018 till:10/09/2018 color:TS text:Noah (TS) from:08/09/2018 till:23/09/2018 color:C2 text:Olivia (C2) from:10/09/2018 till:14/09/2018 color:TD text:Seventeen (TD) from:13/09/2018 till:21/09/2018 color:C1 text:Paige (C1) from:23/09/2018 till:04/10/2018 color:C3 text:Ricky (C3) from:28/09/2018 till:07/10/2018 color:C5 text:Sarah (C5) from:09/10/2018 till:19/10/2018 color:C2 text:Tyler (C2) from:13/10/2018 till:23/10/2018 color:C5 text:Violet (C5) barset:break from:26/10/2018 till:28/10/2018 color:TD text:Twenty-three (SD) from:29/10/2018 till:29/10/2018 color:TD text: barset:break barset:skip from:31/10/2018 till:02/11/2018 color:C1 text:William (C1) bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/05/2018 till:31/05/2018 text:May from:01/06/2018 till:30/06/2018 text:June from:01/07/2018 till:31/07/2018 text:July from:01/08/2018 till:31/08/2018 text:August from:01/09/2018 till:30/09/2018 text:September from:01/10/2018 till:31/10/2018 text:October from:01/11/2018 till:30/11/2018 text:November from:01/12/2018 till:31/12/2018 text:December TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(618,30) text:"Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale)" 'Subtropical Storm Adreanna' The first storm of the season, Subtropical Storm Adreanna, developed from a cold-core stationary upper-level trough that became established offshore in southeastern Georgia on April 28. A disturbance formed within the trough over land on May 3, and moved east-southeastward until the 7th, when a ridge to its southeast kept it stationary. With favorable upper level winds and sufficient water temperatures from 22 to 24 °C (72 to 75 °F), it gradually developed, eventually transitioning to a subtropical storm by the next day and being designated with the name Adreanna while located 135 mi (218 km) east-southeast of Savannah. Convection remained displaced to the system's eastern quadrant for most of its life, resulting in Adreanna's deterioration as it moved westward into an environment with higher wind shear. By the evening hours on May 9, the storm was found to have weakened to a subtropical depression, despite intermittent bursts of convection. Shortly after Adreanna's landfall in Georgia, the system degenerated into an extratropical cyclone, and quickly dissipated upon moving further inland. 'Tropical Storm Blake' Tropical Storm Blake developed from a tropical wave on June 14 to the northwest of the Yucatán Peninsula. It quickly organized as it moved northward, and reached a peak of 70 mph (110 km/h) shortly before making landfall 10 mi (16 km) northeast of Grand Isle, Louisiana. Blake quickly weakened over land, weakening to a tropical depression 12 hours after coming ashore. Blake became extratropical on June 18, and its remnants accelerated to Atlantic Canada, where they were absorbed by a stronger extratropical system on June 22. Two deaths were attributed to Blake, both occurring in Mississippi. Damage from the storm was relatively minor, resulting in only $320 million across its path. 'Hurricane Clarice' Hurricane Clarice formed from Tropical Depression Three in the Main Development Region of the open Atlantic, east of the Lesser Antilles on July 5. It moved westward and hit Barbados and later Saint Vincent on July 8 as a Category 1 storm. It entered the Caribbean and began intensifying rapidly, reaching Category 4 intensity on July 10. After passing just south of Jamaica and the Cayman Islands, Clarice broke the twelve year record of Hurricane Emily for the most intense storm to form prior to August when it reached a minimum pressure of 927 mbar, along with 160 mph (260 km/h) winds late on July 13, as well as becoming the earliest known category 5 hurricane on record in the basin. The storm further strengthened to reach a peak intensity of 923 mbar with 165 (270 km/h) winds before making landfall on the Yucatán Peninsula near Tulum during noon on July 14. Clarice emerged over the Bay of Campeche and made its final landfall in rural northeast Mexico near Matamoros, Tamaulipas as a Category 4 storm. 57 deaths were blamed on Clarice following its passage through the Caribbean. The storm also caused an estimated $1.89 billion (2018 USD) in damages, almost entirely in Jamaica and the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Tamaulipas. Some minor flooding occurred in northeastern Mexico and extreme southern Texas as a result of Clarice's final landfall, with significant wind damage was reported in Matamoros due to the strength of the storm in this area. 'Hurricane Dale' A broad area of showers and thunderstorms with an embedded low developing potential organization in the western Caribbean was first noted by the JMC on July 4. The system made landfall on the Yucatan with no change in structure, but upon reemerging into the Bay of Campeche it quickly strengthened into a tropical storm, receiving the name Dale upon doing so. As Dale tracked to the west-northwest, it gradually strengthened to reach hurricane intensity on July 8. It made landfall shortly thereafter on the east-central coast of Mexico, south of Veracruz, at peak strength. The hurricane quickly lost its identity upon moving inland, dissipating completely by July 10. Dale was embedded within a large area of loosely organized but very heavy shower activity existing over Mexico and Central America during this time. Torrential rainfall in this area caused catastrophic flooding and mudslides which were responsible for nearly 1,000 deaths in six countries; many of these casualties occurring in Guatemala alone. Despite this, the National Hurricane Center speculates that all but just over 100 of the deaths were more related to the larger weather event. 'Tropical Storm Emma' A weak tropical wave emerged off the coast of Africa on July 2, and moved across the open Atlantic without incident. On July 11 an area of convection increased as it passed through the Bahamas, and while crossing Florida a circulation built toward the surface; it is estimated the system developed into Tropical Depression Five on July 13 about 150 mi (241 km) west-northwest of Naples, Florida. A strong ridge caused the storm to continue generally northwestward, and the system gradually strengthened and organized, becoming a tropical storm by noon on July 14. As Emma continued through the Gulf of Mexico, the convection began to organize into curved rainbands, and late in the day on July 15 an eye feature began developing on satellite imagery. Ultimately, the storm was just under Category 1 strength by the time of its landfall 35 mi (56 km) northeast of Port O'Connor, Texas the next day. The storm quickly weakened upon moving inland, becoming a tropical depression by that same evening, and dissipated entirely by July 17. The storm dropped light to moderate rainfall along its path, causing some localized flooding through southern Texas, and helped to alleviate drought conditions inland. 3 indirect fatalities were reported in the storm due to a traffic accident. 'Hurricane Faith' A tropical wave developed into Tropical Depression Six in the southeastern Caribbean on the evening of July 16. In the afternoon of the next day, it strengthened into Tropical Storm Faith. The storm began moving rapidly to the west-northwest, and reached hurricane strength early on July 19 while approaching the Greater Antilles. Faith struck Jamaica as a category 2 hurricane later that evening. The next day it strengthened rapidly to become a Category 3 hurricane. Faith reached its initial peak intensity with a minimum central pressure of 943 mbar just south of Cuba. On July 8, Faith passed over Cuba close to the capital, Havana. A second episode of rapid intensification occurred on July 22 as it moved north toward the Gulf Coast of the United States. Faith made landfall as a Category 4 storm just southeast of Pensacola, Florida on July 23. The storm weakened quickly over land, falling to tropical storm strength by that evening. It further weakened to a tropical depression the next day, and eventually transitioned to an extratropical cyclone. Faith's remnants continued to the northeast, where they would be absorbed by another system around the Great Lakes region. 'Hurricane Gavin' 'Hurricane Hailey' 'Tropical Depression Nine' 'Tropical Storm Isaiah' 'Tropical Storm Jade' 'Hurricane Kristen' 'Hurricane Lucas' 'Hurricane Michaela' 'Tropical Storm Noah' 'Hurricane Olivia' 'Tropical Depression Seventeen' 'Hurricane Paige' 'Hurricane Ricky' 'Hurricane Sarah' 'Hurricane Tyler' 'Hurricane Violet' 'Subtropical Depression Twenty-three' 'Hurricane William' 'Storm names' The following list of names will be used for named storms that form in the North Atlantic in 2018. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2019. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2024 season. This particular list has not been used in any previous season, as it was drafted by the Jarrell Meteorological Center (JMC); an independent branch of atmospheric observation and research stationed in Central Texas. Because of this, the presence of various names previously retired or recently used by the NHC appear on this list, which generated some controversy. 'Season effects' This is a table of all the storms that have formed in the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season. It includes their duration, names, landfall(s), denoted in parentheses, damages, and death totals. Deaths in parentheses are additional and indirect (an example of an indirect death would be a traffic accident), but were still related to that storm. Damage and deaths include totals while the storm was extratropical, a wave, or a low, and all the damage figures are in 2018 USD.